Fed Rates · resolved market
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9833159ebdaff3f7ce68a460744c113ff42246dd84be46169b0c36676633df76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 7,559$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.04 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 9c | 5,238$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 3c | 3,541$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 6c | 3,032$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 4c | 2,923$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…0992backed Yes | 13c | 2,312$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 2,289$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…bb04backed Yes | 10c | 1,414$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,399$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 6c | 1,279$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…7ebebacked Yes | 9c | 1,092$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 942.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 4c | 835.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…974ebacked Yes | 15c | 834.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 741.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 649.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 3c | 642.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 593.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…3990backed Yes | 8c | 506.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…da7ebacked Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 8c | 504.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 9c | 450$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…a8d0backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…ba24backed Yes | 14c | 450$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 417.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 12c | 369.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…220ebacked Yes | 7c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 310.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…600cbacked Yes | 7c | 286.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 8c | 270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1a63backed Yes | 8c | 266.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…4a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 241.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…c28abacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…2d6fbacked Yes | 10c | 203.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2d…5d6cbacked Yes | 11c | 183.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…d6ffbacked Yes | 11c | 175.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…f8aabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…3856backed Yes | 15c | 80.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?this page
- Will no one dissent September Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.