Fed Rates · resolved market
Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac49f234f6b0541c7ba0cd2c142ed93838f301c97f86619c81b19921e72d934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 13c | 7,524$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.56 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 35c | 2,786$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 69c | 1,608$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.55 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 17c | 1,484$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 47c | 1,466$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.35 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 1,005$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked No | 71c | 812.41$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…600cbacked Yes | 14c | 763.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 18c | 744.31$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 15c | 682.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 16c | 623.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc8…8b01backed Yes | 31c | 558.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…7ebebacked Yes | 39c | 551.54$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…d6ffbacked Yes | 15c | 495.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked Yes | 42c | 481.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…b6e2backed No | 67c | 475.69$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 58c | 449.77$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 26c | 445.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 10c | 387.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…1d59backed No | 78c | 379.8$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 72c | 357$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0e…bdf1backed No | 78c | 244$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 63c | 243.52$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 242.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 20c | 234.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 15c | 233.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed Yes | 35c | 230.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 206.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 72c | 195.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 16c | 189.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4b…522ebacked No | 70c | 188.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 135.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 75c | 117.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…7109backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…619fbacked Yes | 12c | 95.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 13c | 81.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4900…05d1backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…4a6fbacked Yes | 18c | 67.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 63c | 63.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 64c | 38.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 65c | 35.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…fda4backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 36c | 28.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent September Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.