Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffc0d1a35b14e0c2d56b1f6f645a5c11710973aa7f05dde6a807e6000119986e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 73c | 2,905$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 2,318$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.93 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 2,317$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.68 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 37c | 1,697$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,452$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 71c | 1,148$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.13 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 27c | 1,121$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,037$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 1,017$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 79c | 820$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 35c | 800$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc8…8b01backed Yes | 31c | 670$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…b6e2backed No | 70c | 644.13$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 25c | 574.51$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…40fdbacked No | 66c | 552.01$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked Yes | 44c | 452.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 30c | 420.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 21c | 397.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 29c | 360.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 79c | 336.86$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 25c | 335$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 332.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 67c | 250$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 21c | 236.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 55c | 235.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f3…e00dbacked Yes | 44c | 225.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 215.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed Yes | 37c | 215.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 59c | 214.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 209$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 19c | 195.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 146$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 141.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 25c | 119.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…7ebebacked Yes | 33c | 106.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…10edbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 22c | 95.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed No | 57c | 81.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…1666backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent September Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.