Weather · resolved market
Will a hurricane form by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ce1ea150658f18f9abedea2d81ae98412ab9632166154608a1dedc5370ecb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 72c | 3,051$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 50c | 1,992$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No | 72c | 1,210$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 79c | 1,126$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.09 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 23c | 1,003$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed No | 34c | 1,001$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 41c | 960.57$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed No | 66c | 741.06$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…3464backed No | 20c | 644.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 48c | 631$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 49c | 589.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.87 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 27c | 577.23$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed Yes | 76c | 549.36$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 52c | 516.46$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 44c | 494.24$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.46 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 50c | 440.14$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 39c | 433.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 424.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 46c | 393.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 30c | 284.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…d7a1backed No | 56c | 265.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 4c | 255.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 233.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 36c | 206.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…8588backed No | 75c | 200.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 71c | 197.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 75c | 160.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +371.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 34c | 156$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 36c | 154.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…a207backed Yes | 10c | 145.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 8c | 134.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 130.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed No | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +449.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed No | 29c | 123.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…d27bbacked Yes | 76c | 115.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed No | 22c | 111$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 25c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 69c | 100.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 46c | 99.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 73c | 94.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…5c64backed No | 19c | 94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 15c | 81.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +569.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 21c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 78.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…926bbacked No | 19c | 74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…a1b6backed No | 62c | 71.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 70.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Yes | 56c | 62.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 19c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf7…6547backed No | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…57f6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…bdc7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…1079backed No | 49c | 43.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 68c | 43.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 38.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…d2a5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…0570backed Yes | 57c | 28.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…bc5dbacked No | 46c | 21.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…e860backed Yes | 80c | 17.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 74c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 75c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.