Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05a582dcbeeb1a243ff4e2ad8aebf2423d0792779164edcf463d6fc2507e25a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 75c | 838.09$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.57 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 72c | 628.99$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…463cbacked Yes | 20c | 498.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +398.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 47c | 442.73$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 36c | 375.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 49c | 311.19$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 282.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…1f56backed No | 78c | 200.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 24c | 194.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 77c | 178.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 129.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 59c | 115.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…c454backed Yes | 15c | 115.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…bb04backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…8de7backed Yes | 23c | 106.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 100.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 34c | 95.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…a9eabacked Yes | 77c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 54c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 26c | 77.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked No | 51c | 76.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 14c | 73.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +245.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Yes | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…4e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 65.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 80c | 64.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 32c | 53.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…3319backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 78c | 17.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…1fe5backed No | 80c | 15.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…71a2backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 75c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.