TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes18c743.48$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.923414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c475.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No80c246.29$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x334e…93c3backed Yes9c210.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec5…10a9backed Yes10c193.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes12c144.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Yes15c132.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.25650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+68.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+245.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f9…cec7backed Yes16c112.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9132…ef49backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204010%4 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-50.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes15c80.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes19c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes18c79.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.331233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…41bebacked No79c65.18$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9619…a6c2backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No76c20.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5f…e8c9backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd773…2c00backed No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.