Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6046cb9b0c73d69675e073abb5ea3e728f9230b68f1c2fc898bc6bd6d094a6d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 9c | 206.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…cec7backed Yes | 37c | 199.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…3bbabacked Yes | 57c | 120.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 113.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…08b5backed No | 65c | 108.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 29c | 92.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 66.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 36.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 40c | 34.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 47c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed Yes | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 73c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?Yes won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.