Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b46ed5ecdc2d38e5cfac1a1e112b9abf9065de846dd015b7b8c4c2e5443d3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,473$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 7,852$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,459$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 0c | 4,727$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 4,452$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,550$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,501$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…4095backed Yes | 2c | 2,937$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 5c | 1,715$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,703$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 6c | 1,585$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,283$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 9c | 1,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0776…d146backed Yes | 2c | 1,036$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,017$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…d63fbacked Yes | 28c | 999.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…4636backed Yes | 26c | 966.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 25c | 880.59$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 871.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 862.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 836.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 12c | 787.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 80c | 757.54$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 25c | 717.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…5310backed Yes | 28c | 669.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…16a5backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 16c | 600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 67c | 571.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 46c | 476.54$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 440.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…a6f0backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…887ebacked Yes | 4c | 396.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 37c | 344.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 308.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked No | 72c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 5c | 299.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked Yes | 12c | 296$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…90afbacked Yes | 14c | 292.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 69c | 284.04$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked No | 72c | 278.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 40c | 247.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 12c | 229.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f086backed Yes | 7c | 197.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 26c | 193.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f5…04e0backed Yes | 24c | 186.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…6139backed Yes | 28c | 175.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb5…54a2backed Yes | 6c | 172.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +709.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…ed3ebacked No | 72c | 171.52$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 21c | 156.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…b3fcbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 14c | 140.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 28c | 140.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 72c | 139.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 40c | 123.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 31c | 121.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8246…081dbacked Yes | 18c | 115.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…8ceebacked Yes | 26c | 108.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 28c | 105.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…15c9backed Yes | 12c | 100.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…0fd2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…7da8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…9fb2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…cb34backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 73c | 85.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 25c | 80.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca7…2fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 80.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 28c | 71.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…7f32backed Yes | 28c | 70.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…66b9backed Yes | 28c | 70.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…f875backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…2111backed No | 74c | 53.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…83f4backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…0f44backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…12a4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…2bfbbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…5047backed No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…4bb0backed No | 72c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…384dbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.