Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9dba68735085932aa6aaa9f53fc3b18d849ca3cbbee531963c33eb4c0574c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $361,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34e3…29d5backed Yes | 25c | 49,770$12,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,371.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 24,476$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…4095backed Yes | 2c | 18,954$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 17,669$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.78 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,517$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3b2backed Yes | 0c | 11,744$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 11,499$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 3c | 10,438$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 80c | 8,255$6,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.95 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…1f5dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,910$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed Yes | 1c | 6,866$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 71c | 6,398$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.8 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…07e8backed Yes | 2c | 6,377$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…8db0backed Yes | 2c | 5,730$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 2c | 5,348$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 10c | 5,115$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,892$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed Yes | 2c | 3,880$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…c18cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,363$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 2,629$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,426$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…e5b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,201$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,059$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,953$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbf…f82dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,895$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 72c | 1,700$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.6 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…bef9backed Yes | 1c | 1,644$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,323$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,274$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cf3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…38edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…1721backed Yes | 1c | 1,153$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…5394backed Yes | 6c | 1,110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 9c | 1,096$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 73c | 1,091$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…90afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,037$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…1d97backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a22abacked Yes | 1c | 920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 25c | 887.92$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…aa3cbacked Yes | 6c | 865.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e83…9466backed Yes | 6c | 817.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 77c | 753.24$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 7c | 715.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 681.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 665.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 30c | 664.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…c86ebacked Yes | 7c | 598.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1127…a7e3backed Yes | 9c | 573.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 546.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 533.73$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 10c | 502.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 23c | 489.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f840backed Yes | 9c | 479.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 468$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b94…7937backed Yes | 5c | 460.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…6068backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 426.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 6c | 413.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…6e2bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked Yes | 16c | 380.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 5c | 376.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…9cdcbacked Yes | 16c | 354.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…4268backed Yes | 4c | 333.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5feb…733fbacked Yes | 9c | 331.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 25c | 314.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…212fbacked Yes | 7c | 267.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…594fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 249.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked Yes | 13c | 232.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…6535backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…5c6dbacked Yes | 19c | 185.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…f945backed Yes | 13c | 156.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 18c | 144.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 14c | 139.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 8c | 134.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8def…196fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 77c | 99.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 79.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0f…0acbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac3…558dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.