Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e794523de9eced30aa525ef742557861885eb5be92bac88d5807fa66e1fa665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x691f…41a1backed Yes | 16c | 8,526$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc1…983abacked Yes | 3c | 6,828$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1194…a4d2backed Yes | 2c | 5,326$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 76c | 3,816$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.1 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 2,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,804$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 10c | 2,789$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.38 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…743ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,606$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…d069backed Yes | 23c | 2,251$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…ce88backed Yes | 2c | 1,942$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 11c | 1,830$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…05d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 13c | 1,111$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 909.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 25c | 811.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 4c | 703.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed Yes | 15c | 651.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 8c | 630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 10c | 620.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 27c | 569.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 22c | 557.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 9c | 552.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…17afbacked Yes | 3c | 515.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…39b0backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 484.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e86ebacked Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 366.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 80c | 331.13$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…6da6backed Yes | 5c | 331$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 75c | 269$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…f79dbacked Yes | 19c | 267.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Yes | 4c | 255.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…96c1backed Yes | 12c | 160.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 159.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8d94backed Yes | 23c | 138.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 77c | 113.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…41c4backed Yes | 20c | 100.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 25c | 98.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…c775backed Yes | 21c | 93.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 21c | 84.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 80c | 79.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 25c | 62.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaee…aea7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486d…18f8backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?this page
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?Yes won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.