World Politics · resolved market
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74d5f642e204d2f71e2317322fa8cf8445981b56457152510dd8bca0b803c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $419,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 36,750$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 30,500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 5c | 18,260$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 12c | 18,228$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.15 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked No | 6c | 12,350$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 16c | 8,925$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.39 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 8,391$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 4c | 8,275$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.99 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 2c | 6,338$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 1c | 5,751$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 1c | 5,446$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…7820backed No | 11c | 5,388$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 11c | 5,349$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.52 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…0adfbacked No | 1c | 5,085$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 4c | 4,838$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 12c | 4,281$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 4,155$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked No | 7c | 4,099$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 4c | 3,879$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 3,354$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…1962backed No | 6c | 3,279$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,093$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…d416backed No | 2c | 2,959$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 7c | 2,586$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed No | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 6c | 2,145$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 9c | 2,061$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.62 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 12c | 1,765$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 16c | 1,753$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.37 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed No | 9c | 1,735$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 5c | 1,576$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked No | 1c | 1,481$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…2322backed No | 1c | 1,426$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 9c | 1,281$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 17c | 1,242$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 1,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…6950backed No | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…ef0ebacked No | 4c | 1,024$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 14c | 1,011$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 8c | 976$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 3c | 868$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 855.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed No | 5c | 792.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 11c | 753.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…3a99backed No | 4c | 746.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 3c | 552.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 4c | 546.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked No | 8c | 500.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f2…59e2backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…4f68backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 16c | 491.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…f719backed No | 8c | 484.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 80c | 471.84$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 11c | 460$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 11c | 450.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 445.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 5c | 439.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed No | 16c | 429.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…b84bbacked No | 4c | 378.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb658…81f6backed No | 7c | 356.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…7516backed No | 4c | 355.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 21c | 346.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 9c | 299.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 18c | 297.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…57abbacked No | 9c | 280.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 14c | 274.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed No | 14c | 240$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 11c | 221$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…6cbcbacked No | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…3132backed No | 9c | 169.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked No | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed No | 33c | 152.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 148$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…b6c1backed No | 7c | 146.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 73c | 137.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…ad1abacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…fb31backed No | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 16c | 119.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed No | 18c | 109.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…33b5backed No | 18c | 106.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed No | 13c | 105.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…6455backed No | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…b499backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…5e85backed No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 98.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 25c | 93.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 91.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4a…97babacked Yes | 71c | 83.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…3237backed No | 13c | 78.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e9…a897backed No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 19c | 53.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.