Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 3-9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eedc32b13c6d479921d4e1e1669a1656251d220f11cc8be31a2892f4d687b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 11c | 5,996$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.64 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 79c | 3,541$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.49 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,836$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 17c | 2,731$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.18 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…2eccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,656$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…bfacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…264cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…5cc0backed Yes | 3c | 1,855$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…b7abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…9461backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…ad56backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 51c | 946.47$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.42 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…1d5abacked Yes | 4c | 910.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 2c | 877.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 827.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +269.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…8a88backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 727.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…c818backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 4c | 514.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…d0a8backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76e…3824backed Yes | 4c | 488$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 427.84$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…f227backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes | 9c | 379$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…a1fcbacked Yes | 11c | 186.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…427dbacked Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 3-9?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.