Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfadd921231122d1d59a542bac43db2f31fd24c05ba054855e6e989c037fbd09c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 11c | 18,094$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…ee68backed Yes | 9c | 17,500$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 22c | 9,999$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,781$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 75c | 5,111$3,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.93 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,626$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Yes | 2c | 4,607$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 7c | 3,130$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,066$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…3c9ebacked Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 2,999$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,533$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.35 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,522$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…bfacbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…03cdbacked Yes | 10c | 871$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…1332backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 39c | 750$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 12c | 444.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…8a88backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 27c | 196.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 13c | 136.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 11c | 111.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 59c | 107.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…59fdbacked Yes | 20c | 101.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…d83dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…354ebacked No | 72c | 33.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.