Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b78ab3ed20ee90915baf6f49e23cc7fad5370f55a98bd2ea16c2367f6f77564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,124$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…ec3fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,613$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 4,484$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.53 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 3,938$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,417$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 19c | 2,903$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,726$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 16c | 2,200$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 5c | 1,929$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,863$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…bfacbacked Yes | 7c | 1,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…ee68backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 989.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76e…3824backed Yes | 7c | 543.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 7c | 495.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes | 8c | 410$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…a1fcbacked Yes | 14c | 366.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 330.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…e56abacked Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 5c | 203.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +371.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 80c | 187.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…63bfbacked Yes | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…9e39backed Yes | 52c | 47.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 3-9?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.