Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69296904db04156655d14a9184a7bdfc09382a328f840af70f4bb0559729ae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x787a…e636backed Yes | 1c | 53,211$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed Yes | 5c | 14,458$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…1fbfbacked Yes | 2c | 12,129$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…defbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…0555backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 1c | 6,800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 56c | 3,503$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.56 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…1badbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 79c | 1,216$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.73 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…b870backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 763.01$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 2c | 611.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 13c | 576$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 409.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 23c | 358$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 51c | 321.47$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 676 | 25.7%174 W · 502 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 309.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 262.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 39c | 257.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 67c | 252.47$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…4144backed Yes | 36c | 186.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 54c | 158.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 31c | 158.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 68c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 142$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf4…f2fdbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Yes | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4315…28c0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b0…e14cbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 52c | 76.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 76.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Yes | 36c | 69.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa398…4cb6backed Yes | 32c | 68.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 49c | 59.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 235 | 48.5%114 W · 121 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 440 | 13.4%59 W · 381 L | -79.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…ed1abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 32c | 49.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…275ebacked Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…975cbacked No | 77c | 44.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2fadbacked Yes | 38c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 42c | 43.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…fad0backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 41c | 33.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…a77cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…6051backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…910abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 46c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…c3f7backed Yes | 40c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 154 | 76%117 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…fe6cbacked Yes | 70c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 63c | 16.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.