Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fdbe803e39ccb18cea7d9708bf2935a43eab591b24b860388886e0b07634b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 3c | 1,699$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…d5bebacked No | 1c | 1,311$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 48c | 602.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.03 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 462$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 3c | 353.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 34c | 347.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 65c | 311.38$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked No | 46c | 219.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…4144backed Yes | 67c | 193.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 184.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 180.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 62c | 161.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 132.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 59c | 101.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 59c | 95.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…9812backed Yes | 64c | 78.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 77.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…910abacked Yes | 55c | 69.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 51c | 59.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 48.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…975cbacked Yes | 68c | 47.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 67c | 44.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8689…b1d6backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…97a4backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 33c | 31.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 30.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 70c | 29.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…cc71backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 65c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…c5a0backed Yes | 63c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…58acbacked Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…90ccbacked Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.