Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1e8ae617377d6a03c471d0514913e4464ed1bf4ce75bd44b96bea884635899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 44c | 824.69$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.69 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Under | 55c | 501.02$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.56 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 64c | 390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 58c | 299.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 39c | 275.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 38c | 232.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0370backed Over | 46c | 218.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 36c | 180$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…ce5fbacked Over | 42c | 169.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under | 61c | 166.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…609ebacked Under | 63c | 103.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 76c | 93.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 27c | 85.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b2febacked Under | 62c | 76.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Under | 61c | 71.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Under | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 34c | 54.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…4540backed Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Over | 37c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Under | 66c | 36.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…3455backed Under | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…d141backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…915bbacked Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben SheltonSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs SheltonSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.