Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4c42f9cc9dc8ac063e4223c3cd06a12323f9db2842357266f7b650dbe06961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Shelton | 0c | 11,478$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Shelton | 23c | 590.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Sinner | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Sinner | 77c | 247$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Shelton | 22c | 229.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Shelton | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Sinner | 78c | 196.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Shelton | 9c | 180.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Shelton | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…5822backed Sinner | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Sinner | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…0b1bbacked Sinner | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…5a2fbacked Sinner | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Shelton | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Sinner | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Sinner | 78c | 33.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Sinner | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Sinner | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed Sinner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…3b30backed Sinner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben SheltonSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs SheltonSinner won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.