Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ee04bbd922a630068153fb0d73a9f5d1b389ef4f2aa52b6de1a5f7f1ed71d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over 2.5 | 18c | 20,175$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631.53 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Over 2.5 | 18c | 9,995$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.1 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Over 2.5 | 29c | 1,662$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.91 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over 2.5 | 20c | 799.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 4c | 714.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over 2.5 | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 26c | 504.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over 2.5 | 20c | 367.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 291.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…8c02backed Over 2.5 | 23c | 261.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 237.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under 2.5 | 80c | 202.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over 2.5 | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 135.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over 2.5 | 18c | 101.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 2.5 | 19c | 90.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Over 2.5 | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over 2.5 | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…c861backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 35.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben SheltonSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs SheltonSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.