NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56dd26bfc891fd31353404106656b3c363912ca3e4ff23fe4e22732fcd8a455c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 20,000$10,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,299.97 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 18,789$8,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,821.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 52c | 16,764$8,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,772.14 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 6,291$3,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.41 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 48c | 5,500$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.99 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Over | 52c | 2,867$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 2,671$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 2,533$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.01 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 48c | 1,758$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.16 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Under | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.61 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,391$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,249$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…20f7backed Under | 48c | 1,099$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 808.49$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.33 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 550$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 379 | 54.1%205 W · 174 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 416.37$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 53c | 340.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Over | 52c | 291.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 164.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Under | 49c | 164.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…ab50backed Over | 52c | 100.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 97.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Over | 51c | 97.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Under | 49c | 95.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…0d01backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…4e86backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…b8b4backed Under | 48c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…d146backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5this page
- Knicks vs. HeatHeat won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.