NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf107dd5941a9741369b339b61aca1cdaa56fa0e5cad236fc8a0e4c4c5159bce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 52c | 4,078$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.66 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,441$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 1,387$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.98 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,383$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Under | 43c | 728.56$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.28 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…92f4backed Under | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Over | 49c | 400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 58c | 245$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 43c | 238$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 48c | 212$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 172.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 42c | 146.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 48c | 141$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 41c | 124.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 45c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…6fe9backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…44febacked Over | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…4d91backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5this page
- Knicks vs. HeatHeat won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.