TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Knicks, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,643,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,960,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,643,076 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,842 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks46c304,282$139,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,969.722,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Heat54c302,496$163,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,339.122665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Heat53c289,801$153,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,531.752365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Knicks47c146,159$69,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,048.5570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Knicks47c100,999$47,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,469.71936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Knicks45c100,834$45,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,521.9512740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Knicks47c96,485$45,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,347.875151%26 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat53c80,000$42,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,599.7851350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks49c53,946$26,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,296.972,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat54c50,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Knicks47c44,250$20,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,797.5220253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks46c42,959$19,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,761.1359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Knicks48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.9717354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Knicks48c28,130$13,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,502.2917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Heat57c26,682$15,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,513.5934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat57c22,324$12,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,494.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed Heat52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6001070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Knicks47c20,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,299.994456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Heat53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.942147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Knicks47c19,029$8,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,950.0555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Heat54c18,372$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,372.3213355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Heat51c17,839$9,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,741.2111558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks47c17,213$8,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,176.192,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Heat50c16,923$8,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,424.0137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Knicks54c14,180$7,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,693.4848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks45c13,401$6,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,030.5596447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ba…ab22backed Knicks47c13,382$6,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,321.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Heat56c12,883$7,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,650.481650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks42c12,726$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.784,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Knicks47c12,676$6,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,018.5313455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks49c10,658$5,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,221.82,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Knicks47c10,268$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80072450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Heat53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ec…663ebacked Knicks46c9,300$4,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0f8…1546backed Heat54c9,300$5,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,277.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47fa…9e0bbacked Knicks49c9,278$4,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,525.871127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa394…8d06backed Knicks46c9,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,14050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Heat54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1401533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x478d…9ea9backed Knicks46c9,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa939…0d91backed Heat54c8,600$4,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,956683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x919b…0f66backed Heat54c8,355$4,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Heat52c8,307$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.2434645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4a…6a50backed Heat54c8,152$4,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Knicks1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf922…e9c7backed Heat50c8,000$3,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,012.082030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaea…3a83backed Knicks47c7,950$3,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,736.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks45c7,926$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.3376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Knicks46c7,500$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4506152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Knicks54c7,500$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05027251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Heat53c7,350$3,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,454.57468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat53c7,128$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.671,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…1ffdbacked Knicks48c6,982$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat52c6,829$3,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.976249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Heat51c6,767$3,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.6592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Knicks47c6,660$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.0870%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb3…34ccbacked Knicks47c6,613$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.751650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e3…266fbacked Heat54c6,471$3,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks47c6,187$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe135…0551backed Knicks50c6,142$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,07110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dbd…f014backed Heat50c6,140$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Heat53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8205250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Heat58c5,981$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.4943051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324b…3768backed Knicks50c5,964$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ae…0870backed Heat50c5,952$2,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+151.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Knicks47c5,483$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5776155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Heat52c5,403$2,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.0427840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf485…d672backed Knicks36c5,400$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9191163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+53.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Heat55c5,387$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.649445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat56c5,385$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.041,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Knicks47c5,356$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf72…f7afbacked Knicks48c5,222$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044d…9252backed Heat52c5,215$2,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Knicks60c5,160$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.1466744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1129…8a36backed Knicks49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Heat50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5005855.2%32 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Knicks49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.981216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Heat52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9745348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat51c5,000$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.81,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Knicks29c4,986$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46513248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Knicks48c4,900$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.3624330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f77…e03abacked Heat54c4,630$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.635100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09f7…dc01backed Knicks47c4,574$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15080%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaf6…4ba0backed Knicks48c4,500$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb08e…bb22backed Heat53c4,500$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Heat53c4,300$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02111149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Knicks48c4,300$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0642740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Knicks48c4,255$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.961,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks22c4,100$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.421,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Heat46c4,050$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x894f…e372backed Knicks47c4,022$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Heat55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8003966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Knicks8c3,769$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.768863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Knicks42c3,588$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.238026.3%21 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Heat51c3,558$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.352138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Heat54c3,479$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.582657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat60c3,400$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.991,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Heat52c3,338$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.645925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Knicks31c3,186$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056352%293 W · 270 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Knicks46c3,155$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.9118047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.