NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3190660f06bcf6b853bc532b8069f851f79da2bd08c41433f183a1b2fc5bc6f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Heat, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks | 53c | 2,319$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.93 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 47c | 1,448$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…585fbacked Heat | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 48c | 708$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.51 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 53c | 429.8$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.87 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 52c | 375$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Knicks | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Knicks | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Heat | 48c | 99.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Knicks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Heat | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 67.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…7c60backed Heat | 48c | 65.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…17abbacked Heat | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Knicks | 54c | 55.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Heat | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Knicks | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 52c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Knicks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Knicks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heat | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)this page
- Knicks vs. HeatHeat won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.