NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdbfce54edd1ba2d4325fba8298d81c1df720412070a99d8ea306e7f3f9f40f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,600 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Knicks | 52c | 37,873$19,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,693.7 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat | 48c | 28,401$13,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,768.39 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Knicks | 49c | 26,844$13,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,153.67 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…a311backed Knicks | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 49c | 12,323$6,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,244.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Knicks | 51c | 6,014$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.14 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks | 51c | 5,000$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 53c | 2,015$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…d672backed Heat | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb3…34ccbacked Knicks | 51c | 1,935$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Heat | 52c | 1,825$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.88 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 50c | 1,446$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 49c | 1,227$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Knicks | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Knicks | 50c | 990.8$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.4 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 49c | 761.25$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat | 48c | 745$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 50c | 500.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.36 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Heat | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Heat | 51c | 367$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Heat | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 50c | 257$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Heat | 50c | 200.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Heat | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat | 51c | 174.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Heat | 51c | 157$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Heat | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Knicks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Knicks | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Knicks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…5916backed Knicks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Heat | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Heat | 47c | 99.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Heat | 51c | 99.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Heat | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Knicks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Heat | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 49c | 78.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Heat | 50c | 78.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7089backed Knicks | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…31bdbacked Heat | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Heat | 49c | 72.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…eaedbacked Heat | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…6a72backed Heat | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Knicks | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heat | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Knicks | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Heat | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Knicks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Heat | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Knicks | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks | 51c | 24.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Knicks | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Knicks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)this page
- Knicks vs. HeatHeat won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.