TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Warriors, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,085,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,194,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,085,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,812 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8605…750fbacked Warriors40c354,123$141,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,5292657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors57c302,500$171,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,995.4120253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Magic43c285,016$123,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,008.1225248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic69c126,264$87,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,797.271,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Warriors41c120,000$48,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,799.9938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic39c104,844$41,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,456.922,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic60c94,946$56,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,018.615,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Warriors60c77,140$46,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,321.627424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors61c65,851$40,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,053.4944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic41c65,000$26,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,349.9917354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors61c58,603$36,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,023.82,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic57c52,423$29,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,778.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic41c40,465$16,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,982.121,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Warriors59c38,500$22,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,644.965350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic39c33,797$13,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,462.5392753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Warriors47c32,025$15,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,126.427251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Magic72c30,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,40070147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Magic41c28,912$11,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,032.2115443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic43c27,609$11,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,763.4866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Magic58c25,981$14,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,005.0626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Warriors58c25,852$14,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,9942759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic38c25,066$9,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,642.269,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Warriors60c25,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…18c5backed Magic40c25,000$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,049.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Magic40c24,252$9,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,550.9220055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Warriors4c22,011$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic62c18,977$11,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,193.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors39c18,842$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,395.227917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic37c18,802$7,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,757.411,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Magic41c18,644$7,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.961861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Magic44c18,340$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,340.388744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cf8…4292backed Magic40c17,680$7,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d0…1620backed Magic40c17,250$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,349.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x080c…e38ebacked Warriors58c17,241$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa678…5ffabacked Magic41c13,535$5,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,985.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Warriors5c13,071$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.827259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Warriors60c12,812$7,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,635.342,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Magic62c12,635$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,864.2348046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc889…f3cdbacked Warriors60c11,680$7,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5062…02edbacked Warriors60c11,650$6,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,99010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…74c9backed Warriors60c11,600$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,96010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors28c11,266$3,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,115.8485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Magic37c11,000$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,94061851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Magic39c11,000$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,669.994725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Warriors1c10,965$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors56c10,781$6,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,037.6159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…84f3backed Magic40c10,500$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic42c10,246$4,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.372,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Warriors61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1003154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic39c9,963$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,121.782,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08eb…aaa8backed Warriors59c9,818$5,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,792.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6549…c3fdbacked Magic40c9,417$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,650.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…8826backed Warriors59c9,350$5,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,516.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x104c…74e8backed Magic40c9,200$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,520683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+55%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb44…cc90backed Warriors60c9,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.98850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ba…ab22backed Warriors43c8,901$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors21c8,802$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.661,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Magic60c8,491$5,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,396.5234645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Magic34c8,414$2,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,540.2647028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Warriors60c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Magic41c8,313$3,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,871.67946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Magic59c8,184$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.3885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Warriors61c8,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb46…8a9abacked Warriors61c8,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,880540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Warriors59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,72012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Magic40c7,845$3,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,687.146352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Magic39c7,720$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.1910144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic66c7,586$5,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.633,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84e7…5f44backed Warriors60c7,550$4,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,530757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick74cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Magic43c7,510$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,280.915749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c5…f21dbacked Warriors59c7,502$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,42610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic39c7,497$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,573.0859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b5…ea5dbacked Magic41c7,493$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,420.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic39c7,219$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,414.332,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors5c7,022$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.751,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Warriors34c7,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,38022846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a34…5142backed Warriors61c6,700$4,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,087633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Warriors36c6,565$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.4417147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Magic40c6,430$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,864.6924330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Magic53c6,389$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Magic74c6,328$4,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.5719388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Warriors45c6,320$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.8523043%99 W · 131 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Magic42c6,276$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.9724048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic41c6,268$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,724.5172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Warriors52c6,000$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.9676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Magic43c5,814$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.953432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Warriors61c5,778$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.435541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Warriors43c5,500$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.7516750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Magic40c5,158$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.895049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Magic40c5,150$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.295463%34 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Warriors39c5,147$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.737536%27 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Warriors1c5,050$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520150.7%102 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Warriors58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3950…71b3backed Warriors61c5,000$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Warriors30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Warriors2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors21c4,997$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.191,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff7…4bb3backed Warriors41c4,849$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked Warriors49c4,708$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Warriors56c4,689$2,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.8311558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.