NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeae287a260685b25e0a486508f3a60617d019a46f95911d40fecb663134b4ca

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2c57…c94dbacked Under	53c	27,896$14,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,784.67	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	18,250$8,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,579.62	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under	52c	8,787$4,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,596.88	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	4,336$2,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,296.52	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over	49c	4,043$1,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,062.15	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,590	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over	49c	2,817$1,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,433.13	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	50c	2,710$1,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,355	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	51c	1,433$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.45	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb391…8939backed Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Over	47c	978.72$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.72	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Under	54c	925.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over	48c	700$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa216…179bbacked Over	48c	641.67$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.67	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over	47c	521.7$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.5	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under	54c	462.96$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Over	47c	425.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.53	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under	52c	425$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Over	46c	399.99$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Under	54c	387.74$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	79	40.5%32 W · 47 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Over	47c	351.38$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.23	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	39cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over	50c	215.48$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.76	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Over	48c	183.33$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.33	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	47c	170.21$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.21	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Over	47c	156.23$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.8	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-12.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Over	47c	155.53$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.43	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Over	47c	152$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.81	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Under	53c	150.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x55c4…0121backed Over	48c	135.42$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.42	32	71.9%23 W · 9 L	+5.2wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+28%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c33…07fdbacked Under	53c	133.02$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	53c	99.97$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.98	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Under	54c	94.44$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-7.0wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc0d…79cbbacked Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c73…36c5backed Under	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under	53c	66.04$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Over	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae2…356bbacked Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	116	34.5%40 W · 76 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over	48c	57.55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.93	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	-9.3wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Over	47c	49.68$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.33	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Over	49c	46.94$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	46.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba2…eaa6backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4567…6a04backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf84…8d91backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57bc…d82dbacked Under	54c	39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74cd…71e1backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-6.6wins	-0.16per pick	61cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x905b…c9d1backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	49c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.85	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6680…5b88backed Under	54c	34.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-6.3wins	-0.30per pick	54cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa26…c10abacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcca…da80backed Under	53c	28.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…fe29backed Under	54c	24.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over	47c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Over	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	144	45.8%66 W · 78 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Over	49c	20.73$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event