NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8587f7cb18dd92a1a83527ec4f68f6fe0062f498faa32df7b18964248df1342b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Warriors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 56c | 2,370$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 43c | 2,011$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Magic | 56c | 268.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Warriors | 46c | 262.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Warriors | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Magic | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Warriors | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Warriors | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Magic | 55c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Warriors | 46c | 99.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Warriors | 45c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Warriors | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Magic | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Magic | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Magic | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Magic | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 40c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Warriors | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Warriors | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Magic | 60c | 36.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Magic | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Magic | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Warriors vs. MagicMagic won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.