NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefd335ac335fbb9ab1fd9a14a68ad947c5a6e3aac8ae278db4472cef50a167a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 53c | 14,736$7,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,858.17 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 47c | 8,167$3,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.3 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,151$3,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,356.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.98 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 2,792$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 53c | 1,339$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.12 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Over | 53c | 1,321$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 6c | 926$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 699$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Over | 53c | 628.3$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 53c | 578.65$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 53c | 567$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 399.97$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 44c | 385.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 245$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…1b52backed Over | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d45…1ba7backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 53c | 100.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…f59fbacked Over | 53c | 88.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7089backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…0ecbbacked Over | 54c | 46.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…eb20backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f969backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 53c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Magic won
- Warriors vs. MagicMagic won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.