NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc64461d0006d1c7de5545f863bfd3e288e50341bb7bc11e6d9854ee23cc00eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Warriors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Magic | 51c | 26,247$13,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,914.28 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 55c | 14,028$7,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,647.2 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 50c | 10,320$5,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,147.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 46c | 7,988$3,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,279.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors | 54c | 6,361$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.95 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 5,134$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Warriors | 49c | 3,097$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.57 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Warriors | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 1,626$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…5feabacked Warriors | 54c | 1,286$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Warriors | 54c | 1,217$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.33 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Magic | 46c | 1,163$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.93 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Magic | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Warriors | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Warriors | 55c | 807.27$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Magic | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…a258backed Warriors | 55c | 740$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…72cfbacked Magic | 45c | 739.97$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 46c | 666$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 49c | 619.01$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Warriors | 53c | 566.99$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.09 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…65edbacked Warriors | 51c | 396.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Magic | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors | 48c | 240.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…606fbacked Warriors | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 45c | 198.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Warriors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Warriors | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Magic | 51c | 159.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Warriors | 50c | 148$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Magic | 45c | 135.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…dae2backed Warriors | 55c | 129.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 47c | 124.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 46c | 117.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…0121backed Warriors | 55c | 114.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Warriors | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 47c | 110.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Warriors | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Warriors | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Warriors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Magic | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Warriors | 49c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Warriors | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…2698backed Warriors | 53c | 75.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Magic | 51c | 74.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cd…67e2backed Warriors | 49c | 52.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Warriors | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…291ebacked Warriors | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Warriors | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Warriors | 51c | 48.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Warriors | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Warriors | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Warriors | 55c | 37.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Warriors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Magic | 54c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…ec68backed Warriors | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Magic | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Warriors | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic | 46c | 21.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Warriors | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Magic won
- Warriors vs. MagicMagic won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.