NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b1cb16ab959a66bdfee44bc9bda503faf617a69428deb31be7d9497b7957c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 50c | 13,329$6,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,664.5 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc231…909ebacked Under | 50c | 10,379$5,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,189.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 8,428$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.84 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 51c | 4,451$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.82 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.96 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 51c | 2,796$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.79 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,507$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 49c | 2,288$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.83 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 50c | 968$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 324.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…74ccbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 50c | 99.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 50c | 92.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 83.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…cbe8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Magic won
- Warriors vs. MagicMagic won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.