NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb247c5997311ee6a6c76ce6d2a25ff9e88b4d1393887cdab02ba476472b863

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,595 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd696…8a49backed Under	49c	18,898$9,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,637.96	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Over	51c	18,898$9,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,637.96	123	34.1%42 W · 81 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	10,542$4,815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,727.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Over	54c	2,300$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,242	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Over	56c	1,429$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Over	53c	1,132$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa499…7873backed Over	55c	546$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.3	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913a…f556backed Over	53c	490.57$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	50cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Over	57c	435.51$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.17	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	43c	401.51$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.86	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under	47c	400$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	47c	344.84$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.58	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	47c	309$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.77	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	51c	247.99$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.44	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	54c	215$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.1	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1feb…bdc1backed Over	54c	215$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.1	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-11.0wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-7.6wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1be0…dc27backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	158	53.8%85 W · 73 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8567…e215backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	548	38%208 W · 340 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f31…2c4ebacked Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Over	53c	181.42$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.15	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	54c	180$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.2	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a8…f8a5backed Over	57c	157.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	43c	152.82$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.1	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Over	52c	131.48$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.37	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Over	53c	126$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.78	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Over	54c	111.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Over	54c	111.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa6da…235ebacked Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…216dbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.28	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba7…d27abacked Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa24…5017backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f1…025dbacked Over	53c	96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc1…aa8bbacked Over	54c	95$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5440…369ebacked Under	47c	95$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.35	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e88…7c99backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf139…1d3bbacked Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x467b…82c3backed Over	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Over	53c	69$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.57	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	47c	51$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-7.2wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-26%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…748cbacked Over	53c	45.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under	64c	45.05$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7b…7701backed Over	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	52c	42.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fd…8efdbacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…fb44backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	61.6%77 W · 48 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6d…a980backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	62.8%27 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a20…af22backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over	54c	33.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Over	55c	31.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Over	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	284	54.6%155 W · 129 L	-17.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.05	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd8…cd69backed Over	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	852	48.9%417 W · 435 L	+26.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Under	44c	26.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	163	21.5%35 W · 128 L	-20.3wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7c…2f33backed Over	54c	21.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Over	53c	21.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5this page
1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
Nuggets vs. RocketsNuggets won
Nuggets vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Nuggets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event