NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8ca37cd02a02a8f168fef0e3958b8ed43c3b49b00bc5785d37bf71b26ac401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 35c | 513.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 28c | 486.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.84 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 74c | 486.49$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3f…c4c9backed Under | 21c | 470.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 393.1$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Over | 63c | 310$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 100 | 62%62 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 213.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 32c | 168.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 66c | 152.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 45c | 148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 76c | 140.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 77.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 38c | 75.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 38c | 60.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd8…cd69backed Over | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Over | 69c | 33.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0b18backed Over | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…aa96backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…25e1backed Over | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Nuggets vs. RocketsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.