TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,236,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,262,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,236,936 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 768 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz61c96,052$58,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,313.255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…79f9backed Bulls0c44,032$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.035046%23 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Bulls35c43,782$15,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,348.8425925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Bulls67c29,894$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls43c18,400$7,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,965.81,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Bulls16c17,902$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.2119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Jazz43c17,099$7,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,783.92941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Bulls30c14,213$4,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,325.191650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa678…5ffabacked Jazz37c12,735$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,023.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Jazz39c12,693$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,680.932263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jazz36c11,810$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.6872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Jazz25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,499.9737930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…1ffdbacked Jazz41c9,812$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,789.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bulls30c9,638$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.851,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Bulls64c9,375$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls64c9,041$5,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,786.2469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bulls35c8,910$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.641,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bulls30c8,858$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.9981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bulls24c8,676$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04527041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz24c8,662$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,572.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Bulls66c8,304$5,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,494.623345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jazz34c8,151$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,413.231,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Bulls1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz36c7,200$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,607.982,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls62c7,137$4,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Jazz60c6,544$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.3476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Jazz39c5,878$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,592.783432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Jazz42c5,690$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.9485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Bulls44c5,664$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.5625945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Bulls64c5,611$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,570.4134645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz63c5,520$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.953,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Jazz40c5,392$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,241.7550838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Bulls9c5,331$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.1818047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls41c5,092$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz50c4,838$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Jazz48c4,735$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.7680146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Jazz48c4,566$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.0548845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0999…016ebacked Bulls74c4,547$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,379.3913850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bulls2c4,370$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Jazz36c4,346$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.371,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Bulls54c4,112$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.9615274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bulls61c4,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4501,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Jazz36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,56018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bulls8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1161…3aa8backed Jazz56c3,923$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.963663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bulls60c3,790$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.6922243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Jazz37c3,691$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.0348132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz37c3,680$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.972,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Bulls11c3,601$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7119845.5%90 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls21c3,362$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.011,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Jazz77c3,250$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7502770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed Jazz77c3,225$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.894645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Bulls70c3,204$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.2629458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Jazz36c3,200$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04845348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Jazz50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Jazz36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9207339.7%29 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Jazz37c3,000$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.994725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Jazz45c2,991$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.5944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Bulls63c2,953$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.3920349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bulls39c2,935$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.241,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Jazz31c2,858$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.4448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz33c2,665$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.531,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Bulls55c2,664$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46013558.5%79 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Bulls30c2,437$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls15c2,363$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bulls32c2,305$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.2347748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz46c2,056$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.481,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz37c2,020$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.032,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls33c2,020$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.283,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf922…e9c7backed Bulls66c2,000$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.92030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Jazz37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Jazz36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.9927051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Jazz46c1,921$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.355,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bulls62c1,736$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.0478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Bulls64c1,700$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08821951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Jazz36c1,700$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.9631445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls60c1,700$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.781,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21e6…cbd8backed Jazz37c1,698$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.111459.6%68 W · 46 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf485…d672backed Bulls22c1,690$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.931163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+53.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Bulls2c1,651$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6240133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b7…e360backed Bulls6c1,636$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3425945.6%118 W · 141 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Bulls15c1,616$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.59141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Bulls52c1,611$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84322449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bulls64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee05…812fbacked Bulls64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Bulls58c1,547$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.3516750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea6…80b0backed Jazz39c1,538$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.46742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls62c1,530$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9551,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Jazz76c1,530$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.3916042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbc…28c3backed Jazz69c1,506$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.715759.6%34 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bulls1c1,443$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.431,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Bulls7c1,430$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1417147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…0201backed Bulls64c1,408$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.131947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Bulls21c1,400$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.829549.5%47 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jazz37c1,359$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.4668542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Bulls27c1,356$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2720851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Jazz32c1,348$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.6518349.2%90 W · 93 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Bulls63c1,300$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81933146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9938…9004backed Bulls73c1,297$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.47955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid+4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Bulls26c1,281$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.956352%293 W · 270 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.