NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55dd353b41abf25b1c8d71050b01d5728271cb01d27973cf7e781b604a9aad0

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,832 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5137…1556backed Under	44c	533.29$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.53	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8caf…13d0backed Under	43c	500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	56c	389.19$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.24	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	57c	287$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.41	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Over	57c	213$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.59	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	41c	135.47$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.94	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Over	60c	100.63$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.63	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Over	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under	34c	74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under	34c	51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2921…78b3backed Over	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…8abbbacked Over	59c	37.29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.29	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Over	65c	35.64$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.37	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Over	59c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.97	109	45%49 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event