NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x864b85c0f3495f39bc105bb21c27dab089d82cb08aa2bd49965d2d2ba6996c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa117…a311backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,075.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,614$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 4,091$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,776$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 818$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 709.56$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Over | 53c | 623.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…e3b8backed Over | 51c | 590$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…4332backed Under | 49c | 590$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 166.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…e305backed Over | 54c | 157.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over | 53c | 94.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Under | 52c | 48.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…17abbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5this page
- Bulls vs. JazzJazz won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.