NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d92efbf2ee2f3e8b9b191b8b277f271872513f160749e67cbf22a69e928442

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $81,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,897 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Bulls	52c	56,968$29,589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,589.37	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	48c	41,821$20,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,748.3	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c029backed Bulls	50c	10,300$5,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…501dbacked Jazz	50c	10,300$5,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,150	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz	49c	5,275$2,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,677.14	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	48c	4,236$2,035 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,201	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz	49c	3,400$1,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,734	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	48c	2,150$1,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,118	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	48c	2,032$975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056.76	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz	52c	1,625$845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Jazz	48c	999.98$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.99	124	52.4%65 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Bulls	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	48c	700.49$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.84	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Bulls	52c	684.65$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.82	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Bulls	52c	425.73$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.38	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bulls	52c	401.49$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.82	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Jazz	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls	49c	244.02$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.27	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Bulls	48c	208.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Jazz	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	10c	199$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e0…b310backed Bulls	52c	194.04$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.9	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8835…7d7ebacked Bulls	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25d…801fbacked Bulls	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Jazz	53c	151.62$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.62	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bulls	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Bulls	52c	121$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.9	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Jazz	51c	98.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.28	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe2…1bb4backed Bulls	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Bulls	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Bulls	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls	47c	73.62$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x699a…38febacked Bulls	52c	69.04$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Jazz	51c	68.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.92	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Jazz	48c	65.98$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.31	1,028	48.5%499 W · 529 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9105…1ae2backed Bulls	54c	60.19$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Bulls	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Bulls	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jazz	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Bulls	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	167	43.7%73 W · 94 L	-16.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4439…751ebacked Bulls	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Jazz	46c	55.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Jazz	50c	51.66$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.83	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82be…627bbacked Bulls	52c	51.35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…8512backed Bulls	52c	50.58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e2…2494backed Jazz	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	49c	49.02$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Bulls	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9b…ae51backed Bulls	52c	44.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Bulls	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Jazz	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Jazz	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	623	49.6%309 W · 314 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Jazz	48c	39.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	717	47.6%341 W · 376 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf6…acacbacked Bulls	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Bulls	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c8…a2aabacked Bulls	52c	37.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x709c…7347backed Bulls	52c	37.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf69b…617fbacked Bulls	52c	36.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570b…1263backed Bulls	52c	36.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x254f…2fb8backed Bulls	52c	34.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f19…87dabacked Bulls	52c	34.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…0f55backed Bulls	52c	32.83$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Bulls	52c	30.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Jazz	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Jazz	48c	29.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Jazz	48c	29.8$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	117	41.9%49 W · 68 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa26…c10abacked Bulls	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Bulls	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	48c	27.25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.17	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7d…fccebacked Bulls	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-27%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls	51c	25.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Jazz	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	340	53.8%183 W · 157 L	+16.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Jazz	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	317	54.6%173 W · 144 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Jazz	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	342	54.1%185 W · 157 L	+16.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Jazz	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	344	51.5%177 W · 167 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b3…bb32backed Bulls	52c	23.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…f84ebacked Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d61…ce94backed Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event