NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a100abbc721c843170163d1f4710eecf5ec0d23c4a8028c3c123aa75ada853d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 36,254$17,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,947.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…2fadbacked Over | 51c | 21,198$10,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,447.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 51c | 10,939$5,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 50c | 8,200$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Under | 55c | 5,414$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 4,731$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,641$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.09 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 2,033$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.33 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 779.21$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.14 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 45c | 467$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 57c | 261.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 154.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 47c | 149.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 128.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…a8a5backed Under | 51c | 111.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 76.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…fccebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5this page
- Bulls vs. JazzJazz won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.