NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63cfb9da0e75be9568301495756dfd35b4ef8b218ba9a120fb8509cdd89e6aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 44c | 6,812$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2d…3749backed Raptors | 56c | 5,949$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Raptors | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 44c | 1,391$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 44c | 1,213$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 44c | 1,018$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Raptors | 56c | 360.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 45c | 263.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 43c | 233.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 41c | 184.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Raptors | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Raptors | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8cabacked Raptors | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Raptors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Raptors | 55c | 172.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 42c | 139.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Raptors | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 44c | 121.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Raptors | 56c | 107.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Raptors | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Raptors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Raptors | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Raptors | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Raptors | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Raptors | 58c | 85.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Raptors | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 45c | 77.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Raptors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Raptors | 58c | 70.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Raptors | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Raptors | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Raptors | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Raptors | 56c | 60.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Raptors | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Raptors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Raptors | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Raptors | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Raptors | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Raptors | 58c | 45.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Raptors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pacers | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Raptors | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Raptors | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Raptors | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Raptors | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Raptors | 57c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.