NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8136a3a5f4b8599c86346a633dd5acf4b586d897432bcdd49b224b4a4e16c90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 51c | 29,122$14,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,939.03 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 9,106$4,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,689.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 4,497$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 4,038$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.38 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 1,113$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.69 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 627$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.77 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 49c | 470$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 450.82$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 291.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 161$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…f460backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 49c | 96.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…fd4ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…00ddbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.