NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8c2ef0fef4f4054402e04d1b8f2835ff9c03be9e34c36dca661d0d323eddd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 7,509$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,529.25 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,588$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 1,971$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 54c | 1,794$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.39 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 616$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 488.68$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.34 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 24c | 455$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 359.85$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…d3b6backed Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…67e3backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.