NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df5e0c8e50fa35a076cef30ad4f5df33166b36b34b98d0ceef9ed5ad3b764a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 42c | 1,300$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Pacers | 58c | 1,300$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Raptors | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 52c | 325$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…2a6fbacked Raptors | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…8b7abacked Raptors | 45c | 174$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Raptors | 45c | 169$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Raptors | 45c | 168$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…d219backed Pacers | 55c | 162$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0987…6046backed Pacers | 55c | 162$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…753fbacked Pacers | 55c | 162$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Pacers | 55c | 154$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)this page
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.