NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb0ae955103f2749c167a26282d586ba992f47abef6a89f34d3bd178ab805027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors | 45c | 7,500$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,125 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pacers | 55c | 6,912$3,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.64 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 51c | 3,147$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 54c | 2,490$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.77 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Raptors | 46c | 2,155$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.5 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 49c | 1,854$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.08 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Raptors | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Pacers | 54c | 1,500$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Raptors | 48c | 1,360$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.2 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 55c | 1,145$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.75 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Raptors | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Pacers | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pacers | 52c | 673.15$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pacers | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 46c | 588$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 45c | 567.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.39 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Raptors | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…c97dbacked Pacers | 54c | 275.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 46c | 252$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pacers | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Raptors | 52c | 181.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 48c | 181.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Raptors | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Raptors | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…14efbacked Raptors | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…1b97backed Raptors | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Pacers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Raptors | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Raptors | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…2602backed Raptors | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Pacers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Raptors | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pacers | 49c | 28.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Pacers | 50c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.