NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9d21266d9c29d2fcea7dd96878cdb1da598a9bb45a8fb616b3e1d133e72a33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 45c | 3,700$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Raptors | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…7231backed Raptors | 55c | 950$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Raptors | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 45c | 593.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets | 44c | 478.78$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.12 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 47c | 453$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Raptors | 54c | 411.11$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 53c | 359.39$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors | 55c | 274$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Raptors | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 55c | 222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hornets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 47c | 208$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Raptors | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Hornets | 45c | 199.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Raptors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Raptors | 56c | 178.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 47c | 163.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Hornets | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Raptors | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Hornets | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Raptors | 54c | 99.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 50c | 78.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hornets | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4f…8b5fbacked Hornets | 47c | 74.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Raptors | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Raptors | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Raptors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Raptors | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Raptors | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…2827backed Raptors | 55c | 54.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Raptors | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Raptors | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Raptors | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Raptors | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Raptors | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hornets | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Raptors | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Raptors | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Raptors | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…c2a6backed Raptors | 55c | 40.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Hornets | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Raptors | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Raptors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Raptors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Raptors | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Raptors | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b8…7c08backed Raptors | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Raptors | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Raptors | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)this page
- Hornets vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.