NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd5ac223becbff15f671c1fa6c275f0fb0a794740b123f1b9aec2990b5b638f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,544$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 1,798$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 47c | 1,187$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.11 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,073$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 735.17$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.8 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 50c | 261$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…defbbacked Over | 49c | 59.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49d…fccabacked Under | 53c | 57.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…03d5backed Over | 49c | 53.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…739abacked Under | 53c | 48.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…2ccdbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5this page
- Hornets vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.