NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ca1e3d1f1e5aba6ba155249ed76d1fdda4b7bc4dcb7489866806735ffae10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Hornets | 53c | 68,358$36,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,357.86 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Hornets | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,600 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 47c | 32,866$15,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,585.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 49c | 19,348$9,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,385.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 46c | 15,016$6,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,908.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Raptors | 49c | 13,673$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Hornets | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Hornets | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Hornets | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…80b0backed Raptors | 50c | 4,800$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…87fdbacked Raptors | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Hornets | 50c | 2,666$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.04 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 48c | 2,190$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…d672backed Raptors | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Raptors | 50c | 1,823$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.51 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.83 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…dfb1backed Raptors | 50c | 1,360$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Raptors | 50c | 1,357$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.49 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Hornets | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Raptors | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 46c | 896$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 50c | 839.22$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Raptors | 50c | 762$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Raptors | 47c | 535.1$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Raptors | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 50c | 489.7$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 48c | 409$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Raptors | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Raptors | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Hornets | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Hornets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Raptors | 50c | 172$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 49c | 168.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 50c | 143.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c2…b4f4backed Raptors | 50c | 141$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Hornets | 51c | 138.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 447 | 51.5%230 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Raptors | 51c | 113.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Hornets | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Raptors | 49c | 100.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Raptors | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Raptors | 50c | 97.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Raptors | 49c | 92.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Hornets | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…f0ddbacked Hornets | 51c | 60.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Raptors | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Raptors | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…ec97backed Raptors | 50c | 51.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Raptors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Hornets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Hornets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Hornets | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Raptors | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Raptors | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Raptors | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- Hornets vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.