NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e578a55277719aad4c3d39cc063f184891b5657a4f858a186664c92c1e7205f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Warriors | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.93 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 1,882$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Warriors | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 54c | 987.61$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 862.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.28 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 852.17$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.17 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 385.17$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.31 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 51c | 381$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 48c | 230.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Warriors | 49c | 205.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 157.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Warriors | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 69.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…5916backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.