NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x299455bc28e960df4cb39ba17201e073b15f28c126feb4a61ef9f5f05810e220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Under | 51c | 25,096$12,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,778.69 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 14,049$6,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,121.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 10,020$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,110.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 4,114$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Under | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 2,474$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 75c | 1,336$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 891.79$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.35 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 53c | 791.62$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.06 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 47c | 741.23$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.38 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 714$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 48c | 406.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 375$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 356.32$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 317.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Over | 52c | 252.42$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…d55bbacked Over | 52c | 227.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 53c | 170.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…5495backed Over | 52c | 95.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 88.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 300 | 44.3%133 W · 167 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.