NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472bd7190e8fd9fee8d84edd0821ff7d41f2baae475788812d90ebaae429a88e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc701…f932backed Warriors | 49c | 11,167$5,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,471.69 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 10,569$5,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.67 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Warriors | 52c | 5,774$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 3,337$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,518$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Warriors | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…d9f0backed Warriors | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,807$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.76 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Warriors | 52c | 280$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 51c | 199.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 32c | 159.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…4282backed Warriors | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 105.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 310 | 55.5%172 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 77.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Warriors | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Warriors | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 244 | 29.1%71 W · 173 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Warriors | 51c | 36.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Warriors | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Warriors | 51c | 24.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…eb6cbacked Warriors | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.