NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75311d6c9680716cb812b14b4d67472e762c9e3db74aa848fb090b42b2971c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 55c | 1,866$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.46 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.61 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,380$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 53c | 704$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 600$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 592.86$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 51c | 587.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…9ecabacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 566.86$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Warriors | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 384.17$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…5ac2backed Warriors | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 58c | 307.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Warriors | 59c | 220.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Warriors | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Warriors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 118$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Warriors | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf326…52f9backed Warriors | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Warriors | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Warriors | 52c | 68.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed Warriors | 54c | 51.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Warriors | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Warriors | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Warriors | 54c | 33.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Warriors | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Warriors | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Warriors | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…04d2backed Warriors | 54c | 24.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Warriors | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Warriors | 58c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Warriors | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Warriors | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.