NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4142d244dee4998cbaf1b1fae859a6b7069220ced20a724ef48e72db4e2d76bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 4,325$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,508.5 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 58c | 3,133$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 57c | 767$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Warriors | 64c | 748.55$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.8 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 41c | 619.56$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 600$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 493$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.01 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers | 36c | 444.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.64 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 35c | 372.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…51ebbacked Warriors | 60c | 297.07$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Warriors | 57c | 254.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Warriors | 30c | 252$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…b5ccbacked Warriors | 63c | 244.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 60c | 240.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Warriors | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 185.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Warriors | 58c | 179$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Warriors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 149$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Warriors | 55c | 129.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Warriors | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Warriors | 58c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Warriors | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Warriors | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…38cebacked Trail Blazers | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Trail Blazers | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Warriors | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Warriors | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Warriors | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Warriors | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Trail Blazers | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Warriors | 57c | 73.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Warriors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b1e9backed Warriors | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked Warriors | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…d42cbacked Warriors | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Warriors | 50c | 59.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Warriors | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Warriors | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Warriors | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 39c | 36.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Warriors | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Warriors | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…a75fbacked Warriors | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…7c63backed Warriors | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…7a09backed Warriors | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 29.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…25e1backed Warriors | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…3e55backed Warriors | 56c | 24.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Warriors | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…795cbacked Warriors | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…f9dfbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Warriors | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Warriors | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. WarriorsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.